Our primary need as an organization is obviously at SS and I feel that should have been more heavily targeted. CF is obviously an issue but not to the same degree. Despite Andres Torres having a down season in '11 and missing a good portion of the year to injury he still put up good WAR numbers while he was in. In 398 AB he was accountable for 2.1 WAR thanks largely to his stellar defense. While his batting average disappeared he still managed to put up a .312 OBP. He played at 24 points under his career BABIP which could be due to his injury or chance, or both. Regardless, after an off season of rest he was more than likely to be close to the speed he showed us in '09 and '10. While I can't see him putting up equal ISO or wRC+ numbers in the 2012 season they should at least regress to his career average, putting him at roughly a 3.5 WAR center fielder. Also a consideration is Torres's age, as he will turn 34 before the 2012 season. Whatever the case of his overall health he may begin to experience the typical signs of regression in older players, making him slightly riskier.
2012 Projections for Torres:
Best Case: 140 Games, 650 PA, .265/.345/.455
Realistic: 120 Games, 475 PA, .245/.330/.400
Worst Case: 105 Games, 480 PA, .220/.310/.335
Cabrera had a great 2011, putting up good offensive numbers and playing a passable center field. Single-season UZR numbers are shaky at best, but Cabrera has never been a great fielder. This could be an issue given the dimensions of AT&T but we'll have to see when the season starts. Beltran had the range of a a rusty unicycle in a pool full of maple syrup and he did alright in RF so maybe Cabrera will be decent. At any rate he certainly won't come close to Torres's defensive abilities, or even Rowand or Ross.
Obviously the reason the Giants traded for him is his offensive production. In 2011 he put up a .305/.339/.470 slash line in 155 games, career highs in all categories. An OPS of .809 is certainly nothing to cough at especially considering the position, but there are a lot of factors that raise doubt to the likelihood of a repeat performance from Cabrera.
Cabrera's BABIP was artificially high in 2011 at .332, 33 points above his career average. His power also seemingly came from nowhere, posting a career high in ISO and home runs. If this is sustainable it will almost guarantee his worth by itself, but the complete lack of consistency is obviously worrying.
Despite putting up a good OPS and batting average Cabrera still failed to get on base at a good rate for a assumed leadoff hitter. His plate disciple is bad at best, and in 2011 he has his worst season in both BB% and K%, with 5% and 13.3% respectively. His career averages are somewhat better but still fairly bad at 7.4% and 12%.
Despite putting up a good OPS and batting average Cabrera still failed to get on base at a good rate for a assumed leadoff hitter. His plate disciple is bad at best, and in 2011 he has his worst season in both BB% and K%, with 5% and 13.3% respectively. His career averages are somewhat better but still fairly bad at 7.4% and 12%.
He has some speed as evidenced by 20 steals in 2011, but he was also caught stealing 10 times. A success rate of at least 70% is necessary to be worthwhile, the good news being he's managed that in the past and has a career success rate of 74%.
Other than Pablo Sandoval Melky Cabrera would have been the most valuable position player on the Giants in 2011, but somehow that still doesn't reassure me. His season in 2011 was the definition of fluky and I still dont buy that random chance and the bandbox he played in last year didn't arbitrarily inflate his numbers. He is several years younger than Torres and has a higher ceiling, but I'll still be skeptical until he's established himself at AT&T. As a switch hitter AT&T will be friendly to him as a righty but may see his production disappear from the left. His career wRC+ from the left is slightly better than from the right, but in 2011 the opposite was the case.
2012 Projections:
Best Case: 155 Games, 700 PA, .320/.335/.460
Realistic: 140 Games, 550 PA, .285/.315/.425
Worst Case: 135 Games, 500 PA, .250/.305/.360
Discarding injury potential, the possibility of Cabrera's 2011 season being a fluke, and their age difference (obviously a lot to simply discard, bear with me) the difference between these two offensively basically comes down to OBP vs SLG. They're both fast with the potential for 20 SB, but in a leadoff hitter OBP should be prioritized, especially considering the fact Torres also has power potential.
Not only will Cabrera have to play well enough to keep pace with Torres offensively, but play so much better than him that he mitigates the difference between their defenses as well (up to ~1.5 WAR over a full season)
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