Joe Panik is Good, Freddy Sanchez is Not

Joe Panik just finished in the Arizona Fall League and tore it up as he did in low A this summer. The fact he was so quick to sign allowed him to get in half a season of pro ball. He projects to be a good second basemen so I thought I'd look at what Panik has done so far and the history of some of the Giants other recent second basemen.

Panik did quite well in Salem, posting a .341/.401/.467 line with 10 doubles and 6 home runs in 304 PAs. Scouts have said his swing is a bit long but he actually drew more walks than he struck out, finishing with 28 BBs and 25 Ks. Whether or not he'll go up to AA in the spring remains to be seen, but given his time in the AFL I'm assuming he'll be moving up quickly.

He was recently named to the AFL All-Star team after putting up a .323/.394/.473 line with 6 doubles and 2 home runs in 93 ABs. He again displayed his patience at the plate, walking 9 times while striking out 10.

He was drafted as a shortstop but profiles more as a second baseman. I've heard comparisons to Freddy Sanchez and Jeff Keppinger but he seems to project as quite a bit more valuable than either one of those players. Both Freddy and Kepp are known as extreme empty-batting-average hitters with Sanchez hitting a career .297 with a .335 OBP and has struck out more than twice as often as he's walked. Through his career Keppinger has hit .281 with a .332 OBP but has actually walked more often than he's struck out, although he does very little of either one.

Neither batter has much power (.384 & .388 SLG) which combined with their lack of walks has actually led both of them to have career OPS+ below 100. Even during Sanchez's 4 full years with the Pirates which were easily his best he still put up a 99 OPS+.

Don't get me wrong, I like Sanchez a lot and Keppinger definitely came through for us a few times late in the season when almost no one else was. Compared to our other current options at second base it's pretty easy to see that Sanchez > Fontenot > Burriss, but Jeff Kent at This Exact Moment Wearing an Eyepatch > Fontenot > Burriss so the choice isn't exactly a hard one. I'm just not sure how adding one good hitter (Posey) and one nearly league-average one is supposed to save our offense.

That was a bit of a tirade but back to my original point, Joe Panik is good. Despite being profiled with Sanchez and Keppinger he has more developed tools and entered pro ball two years earlier than they did. Obviously his numbers aren't a concrete definition of who he will be as he's only played in A- for half a season but compared to what Freddy and Kepp did in their time at A- & A it's fairly impressive.

Sanchez @ A- & A (22): .295/.358/.407 BB/SO: 20/35

Keppinger @ A (22): .276/.344/.404 BB/SO: 47/33

Panik @ A- (20): .341/.401/.467 BB/SO: 28/25

Then again, Jeff Kent put up .224/.318/.429 33/81 as a 21 year old in A- so maybe I'm completely wrong. I think the most reasonable assumption to draw from that is Panik is roughly 16% better than Jeff Kent. I think that's realistic.

While I initially started writing this as a comparison between three young second basemen it sort of devolved into a rant against the importance of batting average. My point being, Joe Panik is good. He doesn't have anything that's flashy or that stands out but he isn't really bad at anything either. He hits for average, has power potential, great plate discipline, and plays second base well. He has some speed too with 13 SB in Salem. The next big hurdle will be offensively punishing AA, but I'm excited to see how he does. If he keeps up his pace he could easily be in the Giants starting lineup in the next couple years.